Carbon emissions of richest 1% set to be 30 times the 1.5°C limit by 2030

Footprints of poorest 50 per cent set to remain well below this limit

The carbon footprints of the richest 1 per cent of people on Earth is set to be 30 times greater than the level compatible with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement in 2030, according to new research. It comes as delegates grapple with how to keep this goal alive at the COP26 meeting in Glasgow.

In 2015, governments, including the Philippines, agreed to the goal of limiting global heating to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but current pledges to reduce emissions fall far short of what is needed. To stay within this guardrail, every person on Earth would need to emit an average of just 2.3 tonnes of CO2 per year by 2030 – this is roughly half the average footprint of every person on Earth today.

An Oxfam-commissioned study based on research carried out by the Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) and the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), estimates how governments’ pledges will affect the carbon footprints of richer and poorer people around the world. It treats the global population and income groups as if they were a single country. It finds that by 2030:

The poorest half of the global population will still emit far below the 1.5°C-aligned level in 2030.

The richest 1 per cent and 10 per cent of people are set to exceed this level by 30 times and 9 times respectively.

Someone in the richest 1 per cent would need to reduce their emissions by around 97 per cent compared with today to reach this level.

But in a sign that the 2015 Paris Agreement is having some impact, the middle 40 per cent are on course for per capita emissions cuts of 9 per cent from 2015 to 2030. This is a turnaround for a group, which is mostly made up of citizens in middle-income countries like China and South Africa that saw the fastest per capita emissions growth rates from 1990 to 2015.

Looking at total global emissions, instead of per capita emissions, the richest 1 per cent – fewer people than the population of Germany - are expected to account for 16 per cent of total global emissions by 2030, up from 13 per cent in 1990 and 15 per cent in 2015. The total emissions of the richest 10 per cent alone are set to exceed the 1.5°C-aligned level in 2030, regardless of what the other 90 per cent do.

Nafkote Dabi, Climate Policy Lead at Oxfam, said: “The emissions from a single billionaire space flight would exceed the lifetime emissions of someone in the poorest billion people on Earth. A tiny elite appear to have a free pass to pollute. Their over-sized emissions are fuelling extreme weather around the world and jeopardising the international goal of limiting global heating. The emissions of the wealthiest 10 per cent alone could send us beyond the agreed limit in the next nine years. This would have catastrophic results for some of the most vulnerable people on Earth who are already facing deadly storms, hunger and destitution.”

The geography of global carbon inequality is set to change too, with a larger share of the emissions of the world’s richest 1 per cent and 10 per cent linked to citizens in middle income countries. By 2030, Chinese citizens will be responsible for almost a quarter (23 per cent) of the emissions of the richest 1 per cent, US citizens for a fifth (19 per cent) and Indian citizens for a tenth (11 per cent).

Tim Gore, author of this briefing and Head of the Low Carbon and Circular Economy programme at IEEP, said: “The global emissions gap to keep the 1.5°C Paris goal alive is not the result of the consumption of most of the world’s people: it reflects instead the excessive emissions of just the richest citizens on the planet. To close the emissions gap by 2030, it is necessary for governments to target measures at their richest, highest emitters – the climate and inequality crises should be tackled together. That includes both measures to constrain luxury carbon consumption like mega yachts, private jets and space travel, and to curb climate-intensive investments like stock-holdings in fossil fuel industries.”

Emily Ghosh, Scientist at Stockholm Environment Institute says: “Our research highlights the challenge of ensuring a more equitable distribution of the remaining and rapidly diminishing global carbon budget. If we continue on the same trajectory as today the stark inequalities in income and emissions across the global population will remain, challenging the equity principle at the very heart of the Paris Agreement. Analysis of carbon inequality must urgently be put at the center of governments efforts to reduce emissions.”

Oxfam said world leaders should focus on targeting deeper emissions cuts by 2030, in line with their fair share, and ensure that the richest people worldwide and within countries make the most radical cuts. The richest citizens have the potential to speed up this process dramatically, both by leading greener lifestyles but also by directing their political influence and investments towards a low-carbon economy.

PHILIPPINES

Oxfam Pilipinas Country Director Lot Felizco said that while the Philippines is not among the major carbon emitters in the world, the government should be working harder to shift towards a green economy since the country is among the most climate-vulnerable in the world.

The World Meteorological Organization’s (1970 to 2019) atlas of mortality and economic losses from weather, climate and water hazards revealed that 75% of the deaths recorded from South West Pacific were from the Philippines. The country has also suffered billions of dollars worth of economic losses due to extreme weather events, which have been linked to climate change. There is scientific consensus that global warming has been caused by human activity, especially those that create greenhouse gas emissions.

The Philippine government submitted its nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in April this year. It committed to reduce the country’s greenhouse gas emissions by 75% from 2020 to 2030.

However, only 2.71% is unconditional or will be undertaken without international assistance. The remaining 72.29% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will only be undertaken if the Philippines received international funding.

“The government really needs to update its pledge and aim for stronger commitments that are unconditional,” Felizco said

She said accelerated funding, adaptation and climate resilience efforts will help empower communities, especially those at the forefront of climate change impacts.

Oxfam Pilipinas is a development and humanitarian organization that has worked in the Philippines for 30 years to address the underlying causes of poverty through its humanitarian response and various programs on economic justice, conflict transformation, and gender justice.

Its Just Energy Transition program emphasizes the inclusion of a broad constituency, including poor and vulnerable communities. It aims to see energy transition that assists community resilience such as in the use of modular, small-scale, community-oriented renewable energy systems, which have been useful during disaster recovery and reconstruction. #